A hidden Markov model to detect regime changes in cryptoasset markets

The objective of this work is to understand the dynamics of cryptocurrency prices. Specifically, how prices switch between different regimes, going from “bull” to “stable” and “bear” times. For this purpose, we propose a hidden Markov model that aims at explaining the evolution of Bitcoin prices through different, unobserved states. The implementation of the proposed model includes a likelihood ratio test that allows to compare models with different states and with different covariance structures. Our empirical findings show that the time movements of Bitcoin prices across different exchange markets are well-described by the proposed model. In particular, a parsimonious model with a diagonal covariance matrix leads to better predictions, compared with a model with a full covariance matrix.     

Companies

Net earnings after pre-tax profits. Profiles include: Anadarko Petroleum, Chevron Texaco, Conoco Phillips, Exxon Mobil, Occidental, Schlumberger, YPF SA, EnCana Corporation, Imperial Oil, Petroleo Brasileiro, Total SA, E.ON, ENI, Repsol, Ecopetrol SA, Norsk Hydro, Statoil, Devon Energy Corporation. BP, Shell, BHP Billiton, CNOOC, Sinopec and PetroChina. Updated on a monthly basis.     

Companies

Net earnings after pre-tax profits. Profiles include: Anadarko Petroleum, Chevron Texaco, Conoco Phillips, Exxon Mobil, Occidental, Schlumberger, YPF SA, EnCana Corporation, Imperial Oil, Petroleo Brasileiro, Total SA, E.ON, ENI, Repsol, Ecopetrol SA, Norsk Hydro, Statoil, Devon Energy Corporation. BP, Shell, BHP Billiton, CNOOC, Sinopec and PetroChina. Updated on a monthly basis.     

A general framework to study the price‐color relationship in paintings with an application to Mark Rothko rectangular series

We propose a general framework to study the relationship between the price of a painting and its color‐related attributes. To this end we focus on four key aspects: dominant colors, features of the color palette, color harmony, and color emotions. We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach with an example based on Mark Rothko's post‐1950 paintings (the “rectangular” series), and auction data from the 1994 to 2018 period. We identify two distinct price‐color regimes in Rothko's market: (a) [1994‐2005], a period in which prices are explained mainly by the growing popularity of the artist regardless of the color attributes of the paintings sold; and (b) [2006‐2018], a period in which color‐related attributes explain most of the prices. Furthermore, we find that in this second period, the dominant colors and the diversity of the color palette, are by far the most relevant attributes that influence the price; color harmony and color emotions hold almost no explanatory power during this period. Finally, we propose a new metric based on the Herfindahl Index to describe color diversity; this metric seems to be promising at characterizing the effect of the color palette on the price of a painting.     

Wholesale electricity spot market design: Find a way or make it

Designing wholesale electricity spot markets even after three decades of experience in dozens of countries continues to be a challenging task. The challenges arise from a myriad of options that exist without adequate level of unbiased guidance, and experiences in real-life markets where successes and failures are also open to the interpretation of experts. This is particularly a critical issue in the developing world where wholesale spot markets are yet to be established in 80 % of the countries and the experience in the remaining 20 % countries with an operational market, is mixed. There are certain trends in selection of market design that leave significant room for improvement including fallacies that should be avoided. Implementation of markets have also been problematic in most cases including unrealistic timetable and inadequate consideration of transition mechanism that have also hampered market development. In this article, we present our views on how policy makers, stakeholders and development institutions should think about the choices around market design and some of the common pitfalls around its implementation.     

The relationship between oil prices and US economy revisited

The authors revisit the relationship between US economic growth and crude oil prices considering Industrial Production Index and West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot prices as respective proxies for a period spanning over January 1986 to June 2017. To capture the asymmetric and time-varying relationship, the authors employ maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT)-based quantile regression (QR) analysis. Interestingly, MODWT-based QR analysis provides evidence of supply-driven link between crude oil prices and economic growth in the short run. However, in the medium to long run a demand-driven link is dominant. In addition, the QR results without MODWT also advocate a demand-driven link. Overall, the result of this study adds a new dimension to the literature on the relationship between crude oil prices and economic growth by focusing upon the time-frequency varying business cycle fluctuations.     

Prices

Assessed or estimated prices and values for the major types of crude oils traded on spot markets. Updated on a monthly basis. Official sales prices (except as otherwise noted) and are generally market-related, subject in some cases to retroactive adjustment. Updated on a monthly basis.     

公租房工程项目合同类型的选择

公租房项目工期紧任务重,工程内容构成复杂,需根据工程实际情况综合考虑各种因素,灵活运用多种合同类型,确保工程顺利实施。合理选择承发包双方都能接受的工程项目合同类型是公租房项目合同管理的关键一环,是保障公租房项目建设快速有序推进,实现较为理想的投资效益的重要手段。     

Companies

Net earnings after pre-tax profits. Profiles include: Anadarko Petroleum, Chevron Texaco, Conoco Phillips, Exxon Mobil, Occidental, Schlumberger, YPF SA, EnCana Corporation, Imperial Oil, Petroleo Brasileiro, Total SA, E.ON, ENI, Repsol, Ecopetrol SA, Norsk Hydro, Statoil, Devon Energy Corporation. BP, Shell, BHP Billiton, CNOOC, Sinopec and PetroChina. Updated on a monthly basis.     

建筑工程投标报价技巧的案例分析

报价是工程投标的核心.报价过高,会失去中标机会;报价过低,即使中标,也会给企业带来亏本风险.施工企业应从宏观角度对工程总报价进行控制,力求报价适中,提高中标率,获得较好的经济效益.本文结合工程投标报价案例,分析报价技巧,说明灵活应用报价技巧在投标中的重要性.